2024 Global Semiconductor Market Fall Forecast Report

Currently, the explosive growth in global demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) is accelerating progress in the development of cutting-edge technologies, commercialization of products, market expansion, and industry chain layout, effectively driving market demand for related computing power and storage chips. Emerging consumer electronics such as smart wearable devices and smart home products, after two years of technological improvements and ecosystem construction, have given birth to hot products like Apple Vision, becoming an important force in driving the growth of the semiconductor market. Automotive electronics, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and other areas that have seen high-speed growth in the early stages are entering a critical "window period" for technology route selection and technology pattern reconstruction. New business forms and models such as industrial internet, smart healthcare, and smart cities are accelerating transformation, empowering economic and social development, and bringing about an overall increase in demand for the semiconductor market. According to statistics from the World Integrated Circuit Association (WICA), the global semiconductor market size is expected to reach 620.2 billion US dollars in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17%.

From a product structure perspective, it is estimated that two main categories of integrated circuits will drive market growth with double-digit increases, with logic chips expected to grow at a rate of 21%, and memory chips at an estimated growth rate of 61.3%. Other categories such as discrete devices, optoelectronic devices, sensors, and analog chips are expected to see a negative growth of 2%-10%. Benefiting from the surge in demand for computing chips due to AI large models like ChatGPT, the market growth rate for logic chips such as GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs in 2024 is higher than the industry average by 4 percentage points. The current market demand for Hopper remains strong, and AI vendors' expectations for Blackwell continue to grow. With the iterative computation and upgrades of AI large models, the future market demand for high-performance logic chips will continue to rise. The sustained boom in AIGC, driven by strong demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as well as traditional dram (memory) and server SSDs (Solid State Drives), continues to revive the entire memory market, pushing up the Average Selling Price (ASP).

From a regional structure perspective, China and the United States markets will see significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 20.1% and 18.2%, respectively. Additionally, the growth rates for Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will reach 10.7% and 15.4%, respectively. As the world's largest electronics equipment manufacturing country, Mainland China remains the largest single market for integrated circuits globally. Benefiting from the continued upward trend in macroeconomic operations, economic growth has exceeded expectations, the economic structure continues to optimize, and quality and efficiency improve. It is estimated that the Mainland China integrated circuit market size will reach 186.5 billion US dollars in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1%, leading the growth rate among the world's major countries and regions, accounting for 30.1% of the global semiconductor market share. In the coming years, Mainland China will continue to be the center of the global semiconductor market, with emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, AI large models, and low-altitude economy continuing to drive demand for semiconductor products, leading to an increase in market size.

From the application field perspective, computing and communication are the two main incremental markets for the semiconductor industry. The market size is expected to be 160 billion US dollars and 200.2 billion US dollars in 2024, with growth rates of 18.4% and 17.9%, respectively. Automotive becomes the third-largest application field, with the market size expected to reach 106 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7%. Other application fields include consumer electronics, industry, and government, with expected market sizes of 66 billion, 84 billion, and 4 billion US dollars, respectively, and growth rates of 15%, 16.7%, and -20%, respectively.